Which outcome has a higher
probability after eight successive blacks, black again or red?
Most people would say red.
Most people would be wrong.
After eight successive Blacks, a Black is as likely to come as a Red. The roulette
wheel has no memory and it does not remember what it just did. This is what
many gamblers find hard to believe. This misconception has been around for
many years and will probably be around for as many more years. It is known
as the notorious gambler's fallacy.
In theory, roulette may
be looked at as a game of probability and that the casino advantage of 5.26%
with a double zero wheel (2.7% with a single zero wheel) makes the player a
definite loser. In practice, as far as the player is concerned, roulette
is a game of luck and the player has a chance to win.
If you were to bet $5 on Black
for 38 spins on a double zero roulette wheel, in theory you would win
and lose every other spin and after 38 spins (which is about an hour of play
at a busy roulette table) you would lose $10 for twice the zero
outcome. In practice, during an hour of roulette play, at some stage,
if you were lucky you would be up and if you were unlucky you would be down
by more than $10, and deciding when to quit will determine the amount of
your winnings or losses.
If there was no casino
advantage and you were paid 37 to 1 (36 to 1 for a single zero wheel)
instead of 35 to 1 on numbers and didn't lose on the outside bets when the
outcome was zero, during the past several times that you have played the roulette,
would you now be even with your money? Chances are it would not make much
difference. You would still be either winning or losing and by much more
than 5.26%.
The reason is that at roulette by far
the two major factors that determine how much you win or lose are:
- Your luck on the day and
- Deciding when is the best time to
quit.
Therefore, for a roulette system to
have a degree of success it has to be linked to luck and tell you exactly
when to quit. Additionally, a good system has to take into account other
obscured but important advantages for both, the casino and the player.
The advantages of roulette to the
casino:
- The player's natural greed for money
- The player's lack of self-discipline
and
- Time (the longer you play the higher
the chances that you hit a streak of bad luck and run out of money)
The advantages of roulette to the
player:
- You can choose when and where to bet
- You can choose and vary the amount of
your bet and
- You decide when to quit.
Now, if you agree to all that has been said so far and give it some
thought, you could well apply a roulette strategy yourself that is
linked to luck. Additionally, if you are able to weaken the above said 3
casino advantages (not easy) and make good use of the player's 3
advantages, chances are in the long run you will come out an overall
winner.
If you try to beat the roulette wheel
mathematically, it's unlikely that you will get anywhere even with no
casino advantage (no 0-00). Mathematics and gambling don't mix. In
mathematics you know exactly what is going to happen. Gambling is the
exact opposite; you never know what is going to happen - otherwise it
wouldn't be gambling.
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